Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BA 0xba0f…d64c crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$405 (+22%) realized +$334 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$222
other 32% +$174
sports 3% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 45% +12.8%
≤30d 49 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 45% +12.8%
≤90d 49 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 45% +12.8%
all 49 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 45% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 45% +12.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 45% +2.0%
15% -31.8% 45% -7.8%
20% -38.5% 43% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$19 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage3d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $170 $241 +$71 (+42%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$67 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 +$26 +73%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 17 $83 −$48 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +69%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $155 +$127 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$60 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$102 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +103%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +240%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $47 +$105 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$10 +51%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $205 +$172 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$28 +67%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 7h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $31 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 14h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $35 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 25h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $282 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $155 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 32h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $35 34h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $17 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $379.33 · official $379.56 (match) · 89 history records