Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba15…7579 crypto 540 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$2,403 (+4%) realized +$2,092 · open +$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate64%323W / 185L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day93.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,184now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$953
14 days+$1,227
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,024
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +4.2% -5.7% 69% 66% +3.8%
≤30d 501 +6.1% -4.0% 63% 47% -8.3%
≤90d 508 +8.9% -1.5% 64% 47% -8.3%
all 508 +8.9% -1.5% 64% 47% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 47% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.9% 30% -17.1%
15% -19.5% 20% -25.1%
20% -27.4% 16% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$51 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$4,184
Realized+$2,092
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses323 / 185
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)508 / 540
History coverage31d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day93.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 508 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 63¢ 87¢ $460 $643 +$183 (+40%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 78¢ 88¢ $318 $357 +$39 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 75¢ 70¢ $341 $320 −$21 (-6%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 69¢ 83¢ $215 $260 +$44 (+20%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? No 62¢ 93¢ $143 $215 +$72 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 76¢ 95¢ $169 $212 +$43 (+25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 25¢ 44¢ $114 $203 +$89 (+78%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $156 $199 +$43 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 75¢ 96¢ $150 $192 +$42 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 82¢ 98¢ $149 $177 +$28 (+19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $144 $164 +$20 (+14%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? No 77¢ 98¢ $116 $149 +$33 (+28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? No 81¢ 100¢ $110 $136 +$25 (+23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 78¢ 99¢ $99 $125 +$26 (+27%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 72¢ 96¢ $91 $121 +$30 (+33%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 53¢ 68¢ $89 $113 +$24 (+26%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $115 $108 −$7 (-6%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 69¢ 88¢ $79 $101 +$22 (+28%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $79 $91 +$12 (+15%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? No 84¢ 97¢ $75 $87 +$12 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 78¢ 90¢ $47 $54 +$7 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $31 $37 +$5 (+17%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 50¢ 32¢ $33 $21 −$12 (-35%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 30¢ $24 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 68¢ 92¢ $14 $19 +$5 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.30 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $120 +$20 +16%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? Jun 17 $120 +$35 +29%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $121 +$36 +30%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 16? Jun 17 $205 +$115 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $45 +$9 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $213 +$142 +66%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $115 +$47 +41%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $345 −$92 -27%
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $78 +$67 +86%
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $80 +$71 +88%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 15? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $156 +$174 +112%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 +$42 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 15? Jun 15 $81 +$190 +235%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $80 +$13 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $151 +$31 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $153 +$89 +58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $109 +$23 +21%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $131 +$23 +17%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 14? Jun 15 $145 −$36 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $120 +$30 +25%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $219 +$160 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $139 +$48 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$19 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $28 +$16 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $81 +$95 +117%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $31 +$9 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $151 +$30 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$18 +34%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 13? Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$2 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $275 −$50 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 12? Jun 13 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 84¢ $11 27m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 78¢ $48 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $120 1h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 50¢ $32 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $15 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $90 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $82 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 78¢ $76 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $0 6h
Will XRP dip to $1.20 on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $120 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 76¢ $120 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 78¢ $0 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $120 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 64¢ $80 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 55¢ $121 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 61¢ $13 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 77¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $0 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $120 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 31¢ $0 25h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $1 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 65¢ $1 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $69 27h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 44¢ $0 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $63 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,183.71 · official $4,180.45 (match) · 3365 history records