Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba17…5c67 sports 743 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-3%) realized −$393 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%363W / 365L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day116.9pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$442
14 days−$1,449
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$474
other 3% +$39
politics 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 +1.1% -8.5% 52% 48% -23.8%
≤30d 728 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 47% -12.9%
≤90d 728 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 47% -12.9%
all 728 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 47% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 47% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -21.3%
15% -28.8% 40% -28.9%
20% -35.8% 34% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$258
Realized−$393
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses363 / 365
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions15
Markets (closed)728 / 743
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$18
Trades / day116.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 728 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 95¢ $49 $86 +$36 (+74%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 34¢ 100¢ $15 $45 +$30 (+194%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 50¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 44¢ 44¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 47¢ 46¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 84¢ 60¢ $8 $5 −$2 (-29%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 37¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 62¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 18¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 18¢ 40¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+125%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 58¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $48 +$84 +176%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $17 +$20 +117%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$14 +90%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 15 $22 +$2 +10%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TDK (-3.5) vs Young Ninjas (+3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $9 +$12 +131%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 +$11 +28%
Map Handicap: G1 (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +42%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +114%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$3 +226%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $11 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 +$40 +97%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 9z (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $3 +$4 +153%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $8 +$9 +117%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +33%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $12 −$3 -26%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $4 +$2 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 20¢ $2 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 45¢ $6 3m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $8 3m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 7m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 16¢ $0 7m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $2 18m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 45¢ $6 18m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $8 18m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $2 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $8 33m
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $8 48m
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 41¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $24 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $22 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $3 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 49¢ $22 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 64¢ $2 9h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY G2 62¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $2 9h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 63¢ $3 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $257.66 · official $257.66 (match) · 3500 history records