Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:32:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba19…0c5d politics 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$4
politics 24% −$14
other 20% +$2
sports 8% $0
finance 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 6 -2.1% -11.4% 33% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 38% 0% -10.8%
all 31 -4.9% -13.9% 32% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -11.4%
10% -22.2% 0% -19.9%
15% -29.7% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage248d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $52 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $39 −$5 -12%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $54 −$2 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $57 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 18 $51 +$1 +3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 15 $1 −$1 -80%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $8 +$2 +20%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 20 $19 −$12 -66%
Trump out as President in 2025? Nov 20 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in 2025? Oct 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 23 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $20 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $2 $0 -16%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $23 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $19 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $53 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $55 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $4 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 3¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $39 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $2 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $26 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 94¢ $22 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 92¢ $47 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $34 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $18 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 92¢ $54 25d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 88¢ $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $57 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $57 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $52 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $30 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $21 30d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 185d
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.14 · official $4.14 (match) · 98 history records