Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:23:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba1c…d5f1 sports 1674 markets active 2h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 103d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1648W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$26
weather 19% +$16
other 17% +$13
crypto 2% +$2
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 205 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1401 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1672 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1648 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1672 / 1674
History coverage103d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 20h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 25h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $17 31h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 100¢ $28 31h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 47h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner BUY ex-RUBY 100¢ $50 3d
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Kayo Nishimura BUY Hiromi Abe 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 3d
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $14 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3496 history records