Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba1c…aa0a crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-5%) realized −$49 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%96W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$11
14 days+$28
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% +$4
crypto 36% −$53
other 20% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -8.3% -17.0% 64% 64% -2.8%
≤30d 28 -14.7% -22.8% 57% 57% -10.4%
≤90d 164 -12.6% -20.9% 52% 51% -17.3%
all 191 -14.5% -22.6% 50% 49% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 49% -15.1%
10% -30.0% 49% -23.2%
15% -36.8% 41% -30.7%
20% -43.0% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses96 / 95
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage97d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 +$4 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$3 +29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$4 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 Jun 09 $11 +$16 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $11 −$11 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 24 $22 −$21 -99%
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 May 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 23 $40 +$15 +38%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $9 −$9 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $14 +$10 +67%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 May 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $20 +$7 +34%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 18 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9 +$4 +41%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 201.5 May 16 $15 +$5 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 15 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $12 +$8 +62%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $7 +$5 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 07 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 07 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 07 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 47m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $9 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $7 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $12 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $10 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $5 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $15 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5 BUY Over 40¢ $11 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $11 18d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 72¢ $22 24d
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Real Madrid BUY Real Madrid 30¢ $5 24d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 24d
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia record the most Player of the Match awards BUY Yes 30¢ $10 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.23 · official $6.11 (match) · 321 history records