Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba1e…8d17 other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$128 (+1%) realized +$190 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%155W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$273
7 days+$349
14 days+$9
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$112
sports 19% +$96
crypto 10% +$23
tech 4% +$33
world 3% +$2
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +3.9% -6.0% 100% 14% -6.6%
≤30d 145 -0.5% -9.9% 97% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 160 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 4% -9.1%
all 160 -0.0% -9.6% 97% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$93 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$2,248
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses155 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage40d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,000 $1,993 −$7 (-0%)
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 70¢ $310 $255 −$55 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 23 $953 +$5 +1%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $75 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $1,500 +$10 +1%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,427 +$239 +17%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,147 +$15 +1%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $1,101 +$40 +4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $1,100 +$4 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,086 +$7 +1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,079 +$6 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,070 +$7 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $476 −$186 -39%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $472 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 15 $450 +$11 +2%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $425 +$10 +2%
Memphis Depay: 2+ goals Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $425 +$25 +6%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $123 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $380 −$269 -71%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $199 +$13 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $360 +$15 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $360 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $350 +$10 +3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $340 +$8 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $340 +$4 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $640? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $230? Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $385? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 8 above $650? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $230-$235 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $265-$270 on the final day of trading of t Jun 12 $11 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $270? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $260? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 8 above $265? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $60? Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $50? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $90? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 8 above $70? Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $390-$395 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta (META) close at $630-$640 on the final day of trading of the Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $385-$390 on the final day of trading of Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $390? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 3 Czechia? Jun 12 $335 +$3 +1%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 11 $328 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $500 1h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag SELL Yes 91¢ $958 1h
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 91¢ $10 12h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,501 12h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $75 22h
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 87¢ $100 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $1,500 22h
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,666 23h
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 90¢ $953 33h
Will Tunisia be the worst-placed African nation in the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 84¢ $201 33h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,162 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $2 37h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,147 2d
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 96¢ $1,101 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 96¢ $3 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 100¢ $1,100 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $100 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,086 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? BUY No 99¢ $1,079 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $1,070 3d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,072 3d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 85¢ $1,427 4d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $291 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $290 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $476 8d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $172 8d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $300 8d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 100¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,248.49 · official $2,248.49 (match) · 339 history records