Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba1f…4258
crypto · 188 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$96 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$27
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$293
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses86 / 92
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)178 / 188
History coverage60d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 10 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$262
14 days+$361
30 days+$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026? Yes 47¢ 42¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 28¢ 57¢ $42 $87 +$45 (+106%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 44¢ 59¢ $36 $48 +$12 (+33%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+46%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $34 $20 −$14 (-41%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-59%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 58¢ 29¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-50%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 31¢ 71¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+129%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 44¢ 35¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $37 +$60 +163%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$9 +80%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $71 +$72 +102%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$11 -40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $35 +$9 +27%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $11 +$8 +78%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $9 +$12 +144%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$3 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $38 +$6 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $13 −$2 -18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $78 −$15 -20%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $171 +$68 +40%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $42 +$45 +107%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $39 −$5 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$2 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $107 +$39 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $13 +$32 +259%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $23 +$8 +34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $182 +$8 +5%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $37 −$11 -29%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 03 $36 +$9 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $7 −$1 -14%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $62 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $12 −$3 -20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $166 +$98 +59%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 31 $35 −$16 -46%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 31 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $168 +$23 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $78 −$12 -15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $12 +$7 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $19 +$14 +73%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 29 $40 +$10 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 28 $65 −$4 -6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $14 −$9 -64%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $266 +$81 +31%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $58 +$6 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $12 −$6 -48%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $78 +$12 +16%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 51% +$445
crypto 36% −$228
other 11% −$192
politics 2% +$2
tech 1% +$9
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 33¢ $25 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $18 5m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 26¢ $4 57m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $73 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $7 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 73¢ $7 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 69¢ $29 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 55¢ $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 70¢ $45 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 62¢ $40 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $8 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 48¢ $32 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 47¢ $49 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 58¢ $13 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 37¢ $29 10h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 65¢ $4 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 55¢ $16 25h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 55¢ $7 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $6 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 51¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +17.7% +6.5% 52% 52% +19.3%
≤30d 59 +4.7% -5.3% 44% 42% +5.7%
≤90d 178 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 47% -9.7%
all 178 -6.9% -15.7% 48% 47% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 47% -9.7%
10% -23.8% 43% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 29% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 19% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.17 · official $293.08 (match) · 1115 history records