Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba21…f5a4 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-11%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$8
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$14
other 32% +$9
sports 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-40.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.1% -31.4% 56% 44% -5.9%
≤30d 20 -31.7% -38.2% 50% 40% -6.9%
≤90d 21 -34.7% -40.9% 48% 38% -10.7%
all 21 -34.7% -40.9% 48% 38% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.9% 38% -10.7%
10% -46.6% 24% -19.2%
15% -51.7% 14% -27.0%
20% -56.5% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage60d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +34%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$5 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 6PM ET Apr 19 $14 −$8 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $20 23h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 69¢ $15 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 68¢ $15 28h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 67¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records