Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba22…e546 weather 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$30 (-11%) realized +$47 · open −$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +49% what you keep after slip
Net edge+49%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+61.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +78.5% +61.5% 75% 75% +61.6%
≤30d 4 +78.5% +61.5% 75% 75% +61.6%
≤90d 4 +78.5% +61.5% 75% 75% +61.6%
all 4 +78.5% +61.5% 75% 75% +61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.5% 75% +61.6%
10% +46.0% 75% +46.1%
15% +31.9% 75% +32.0%
20% +19.0% 75% +19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +78% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$11 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.2 per $1 lost it wins $10.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? Yes 37¢ 45¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $42 $8 −$34 (-80%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? No 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 29? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 29? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $6 −$14 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? Jun 29 $31 +$31 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? Jun 29 $31 +$62 +198%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? Jun 28 $31 +$16 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $31 −$11 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? SELL Yes 98¢ $61 13m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 52m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29? BUY No 9¢ $10 58m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? SELL Yes 82¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 37°C on June 29? BUY Yes 24¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 29? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 12h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? SELL Yes 50¢ $33 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 25¢ $20 23h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 29? BUY Yes 37¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 38°C on June 29? BUY Yes 34¢ $26 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 29? BUY Yes 48¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 29? BUY Yes 32¢ $31 25h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.28 · official $56.28 (match) · 18 history records