Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba22…7f44 crypto 1421 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$475 (-1%) realized −$626 · open +$151
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%1400W / 347L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day100.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,346
7 days−$1,300
14 days−$1,352
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 614 -52.3% -56.9% 46% 0% -12.6%
≤30d 1747 -18.5% -26.2% 80% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 1747 -18.5% -26.2% 80% 0% -11.0%
all 1747 -18.5% -26.2% 80% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.2% 0% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -33.3% 0% -19.5%
15% -39.7% 0% -27.3%
20% -45.6% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$626
Unrealized+$151
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1400 / 347
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1747 / 1421
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day100.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1747 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 0¢ 100¢ $0 $151 +$151 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 342 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on May 5? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $0 +$1 +535%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on May 6? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 5? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $123 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $119 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $32 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $97 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $73 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.24 · official $123.88 · 3500 history records