Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:39:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba23…cd7e sports 234 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,792 (+7%) realized +$2,096 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%128W / 98L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$379est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$891now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$688
14 days+$1,181
30 days+$1,430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +10.8% +0.2% 59% 56% +0.9%
≤30d 178 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 54% -3.3%
≤90d 226 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 54% -2.6%
all 226 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 54% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 54% -2.6%
10% -16.7% 52% -11.9%
15% -24.8% 46% -20.4%
20% -32.2% 41% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$75 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$891
Realized+$2,096
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses128 / 98
Est. fees paid−$379
Open positions8
Markets (closed)226 / 234
History coverage33d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 226 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Rune Eaters 54¢ 100¢ $151 $280 +$129 (+85%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 51¢ 52¢ $150 $152 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Sashi Esport 56¢ 56¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 55¢ 52¢ $151 $144 −$7 (-5%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 63¢ 60¢ $151 $142 −$8 (-6%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 54¢ 8¢ $148 $22 −$126 (-85%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Grind Back 50¢ 0¢ $151 $0 −$151 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $150 +$85 +56%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $150 +$100 +67%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $155 +$95 +61%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $151 +$129 +85%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $163 −$161 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $151 +$139 +92%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $160 +$130 +82%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $157 −$157 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $152 +$111 +73%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Jun 22 $151 +$114 +75%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $150 +$150 +100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series Jun 22 $305 −$153 -50%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $153 −$150 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $154 −$152 -98%
Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 19 $152 +$148 +97%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $151 +$139 +92%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $43 +$31 +72%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $158 +$52 +33%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $161 +$5 +3%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $150 +$45 +30%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $259 +$157 +60%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $151 +$114 +75%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $152 +$248 +163%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 19 $151 −$9 -6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $151 +$209 +138%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $151 +$74 +49%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $153 −$5 -3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $307 −$2 -1%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $152 +$42 +28%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $153 +$117 +76%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $252 −$126 -50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $151 −$151 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $151 +$105 +70%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $377 −$164 -44%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $151 +$81 +54%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 15 $17 −$1 -7%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs G-Time (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 15 $147 +$23 +16%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $157 −$17 -11%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $152 −$151 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$86 +56%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$40 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $154 +$36 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 54¢ $151 22m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 55¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 54¢ $112 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $144 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner BUY Grind Back 50¢ $153 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY OG 64¢ $150 3h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 60¢ $137 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $21 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $13 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $1 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $12 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $27 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $21 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $13 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $14 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $31 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner BUY REJECT 62¢ $2 4h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 45¢ $137 4h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 60¢ $13 5h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $7 5h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $11 5h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $9 5h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $61 5h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 55¢ $64 5h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 47¢ $144 17h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 46¢ $9 17h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 46¢ $1 17h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re BUY OXEN 46¢ $9 17h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY ReThink 54¢ $151 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY L1ga Team 56¢ $157 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $890.73 · official $890.73 (match) · 709 history records