Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BA 0xba24…a09b sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate81%92W / 22L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,172per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% +$28
economics 21% +$1
other 1% $0
sports 0% +$15
politics 0% +$2
finance 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 114 -5.3% -14.3% 81% 26% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 26% -9.5%
10% -22.5% 16% -18.2%
15% -30.0% 11% -26.1%
20% -36.9% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses92 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)114 / 115
History coverage635d
Avg bet$1,172
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $221 $221 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in May? Jun 27 $221 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 21 $221 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Apr 19 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 19 $221 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 04 $220 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025? Jan 12 $120 +$1 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 09 $71 +$1 +1%
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Nov 17 $109 $0 +0%
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? Oct 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 14 $207 $0 +0%
Will Finland win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 20 $10 $0 +2%
Cardinals vs. Brewers Sep 20 $35 +$19 +54%
Royals vs. Phillies Sep 20 $35 +$26 +75%
White Sox vs. Guardians Sep 20 $35 +$26 +75%
Orioles vs. Blue Jays Sep 20 $35 +$29 +82%
Yankees vs. Red Sox Sep 20 $35 +$32 +92%
Pirates vs. Nationals Sep 20 $35 +$34 +96%
Astros vs. Braves Sep 20 $35 +$36 +104%
Mercury vs. Wings Sep 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Valkyries vs. Lynx Sep 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Dream vs. Sun Sep 12 $18 +$2 +14%
Aces vs. Sparks Sep 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Liberty vs. Sky Sep 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Georgia win the 2025 EuroBasket Championship? Sep 12 $10 $0 +1%
Rangers vs. Mets Sep 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Tigers vs. Marlins Sep 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Rays vs. Cubs Sep 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Sparks vs. Mercury Sep 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Mystics vs. Liberty Sep 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Valkyries vs. Storm Sep 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Lynx vs. Fever Sep 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Sky vs. Aces Sep 10 $5 $0 +10%
Sun vs. Dream Sep 10 $22 +$3 +14%
Sparks vs. Dream Sep 08 $4 +$1 +35%
Euro Basket: Portugal vs Germany Sep 08 $5 $0 +1%
Liberty vs. Storm Sep 08 $4 +$4 +104%
Euro Basket: Sweden vs Turkey Sep 08 $10 $0 +3%
Euro Basket: Greece vs Israel Sep 08 $9 +$3 +30%
Lynx vs. Valkyries Sep 08 $10 +$3 +33%
Euro Basket: Poland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina Sep 08 $10 +$5 +47%
Euro Basket: France vs Georgia Sep 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Euro Basket: Finland vs Serbia Sep 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Mercury vs. Sun Sep 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Euro Basket: Latvia vs Lithuania Sep 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Euro Basket: Italy vs Slovenia Sep 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Sky vs. Fever Sep 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Euro Basket: Spain vs Greece Sep 05 $12 +$5 +41%
Wings vs. Valkyries Sep 05 $30 +$4 +15%
Mercury vs. Mystics Sep 05 $30 +$7 +24%
Lynx vs. Aces Sep 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $221 1h
Will Solana reach $160 in May? BUY No 100¢ $221 36d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $221 68d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $220 99d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $221 142d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $220 166d
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $120 199d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? BUY No 99¢ $71 222d
Will the Party for the Animals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla BUY No 100¢ $109 255d
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $207 280d
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 280d
Cardinals vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 65¢ $35 287d
Astros vs. Braves BUY Astros 49¢ $35 287d
Rangers vs. Mets BUY Mets 51¢ $35 287d
Tigers vs. Marlins BUY Tigers 66¢ $35 287d
White Sox vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 57¢ $35 287d
Yankees vs. Red Sox BUY Yankees 52¢ $35 287d
Orioles vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 55¢ $35 287d
Pirates vs. Nationals BUY Nationals 51¢ $35 287d
Royals vs. Phillies BUY Phillies 57¢ $35 287d
Rays vs. Cubs BUY Rays 75¢ $10 287d
Aces vs. Sparks BUY Aces 84¢ $4 290d
Valkyries vs. Lynx BUY Valkyries 68¢ $7 290d
Mercury vs. Wings BUY Mercury 66¢ $5 290d
Liberty vs. Sky BUY Liberty 81¢ $4 290d
Dream vs. Sun BUY Dream 88¢ $18 290d
Valkyries vs. Storm BUY Valkyries 80¢ $8 291d
Sparks vs. Mercury BUY Mercury 73¢ $6 291d
Sky vs. Aces BUY Aces 91¢ $5 291d
Lynx vs. Fever BUY Lynx 76¢ $3 291d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.19 · official $221.19 (match) · 357 history records