Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

BA 0xba2e…3a00 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$480 (+30%) realized +$530 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR59%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit48%portable

Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$65

7 days+$139

14 days−$62

30 days+$479

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +59%

net ROI/market (all)-7.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	+19.1%	+7.8%	69%	69%	+20.7%
≤30d	17	+2.2%	-7.5%	59%	59%	+23.6%
≤90d	17	+2.2%	-7.5%	59%	59%	+23.6%
all	17	+2.2%	-7.5%	59%	59%	+23.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.5%	59%	+23.6%
10%	-16.3%	59%	+11.8%
15%	-24.4%	59%	+1.0%
20%	-31.8%	53%	-8.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 73% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +7% → late -2% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$79 vs −$44 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage

Net worth$145

Realized+$530

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions3

Markets (closed)17 / 25

History coverage25d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$95	$90	−$6 (-6%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	Croatia	46¢	34¢	$50	$37	−$13 (-25%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	Over	56¢	20¢	$50	$18	−$32 (-63%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$20	−$15	-76%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$25	+$16	+65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$11	+52%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5)	Jun 23	$20	+$19	+92%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$55	+55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$25	−$25	-99%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Jun 21	$10	+$10	+97%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$15	+$12	+79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$25	+$12	+46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	Jun 19	$25	+$21	+85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	Jun 19	$100	+$54	+55%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$103	−$102	-99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	May 31	$649	+$579	+89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	May 29	$39	−$38	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	56¢	$51	1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5)	BUY Croatia	46¢	$51	1h
Spread: England (-2.5)	SELL England	10¢	$5	3h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	4h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	39¢	$20	4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY	38¢	$20	8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY	47¢	$15	8h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	60¢	$25	8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	22h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-	BUY	10¢	$5	27h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-2.5)	BUY	51¢	$20	27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	58¢	$25	2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	60¢	$30	2d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	32¢	$10	2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$15	2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both	BUY	22¢	$10	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$25	3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202	BUY	53¢	$25	4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5	BUY Over	64¢	$100	4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$98	8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	53¢	$101	8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$103	10d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	42¢	$193	24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	BUY Yes	41¢	$39	25d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY Yes	58¢	$456	25d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.46 · official $153.20 · 45 history records