Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:15:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba31…836d sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$612now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$523
crypto 9% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.9% +6.7% 71% 71% +34.9%
≤30d 7 +17.9% +6.7% 71% 71% +34.9%
≤90d 7 +17.9% +6.7% 71% 71% +34.9%
all 7 +17.9% +6.7% 71% 71% +34.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 71% +34.9%
10% -3.5% 71% +22.0%
15% -12.9% 71% +10.2%
20% -21.4% 71% -0.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$54 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.75 per $1 lost it wins $5.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$612
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 61¢ 55¢ $685 $612 −$73 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $382 +$312 +82%
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $253 +$128 +51%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $168 +$86 +51%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $99 +$69 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $61 −$58 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$25 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 61¢ $693 49m
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $694 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 58¢ $215 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 51¢ $152 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 42¢ $15 1h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon SELL Zverev 99¢ $381 1h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 65¢ $253 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen SELL Otto Virtanen 100¢ $254 1h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 65¢ $168 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $168 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 58¢ $99 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $612.25 · official $612.25 (match) · 16 history records