Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:47:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba32…1afe crypto 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate93%40W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$2
weather 38% +$2
other 17% −$27
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 -19.9% -27.5% 80% 0% -20.5%
≤90d 17 -5.8% -14.7% 94% 0% -11.6%
all 43 -6.4% -15.3% 93% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 2% -10.2%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.8%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$12 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses40 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage198d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $67 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 28? May 28 $67 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 18? May 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 11? May 12 $44 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 9? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 27? May 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23 Apr 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 17? Apr 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on April 15? Apr 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 7? Apr 08 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on March 26? Mar 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22? Mar 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 16? Mar 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar Mar 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $10 February 23-March 1? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will "Star Search" be the top global Netflix show this week? Feb 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on Febr Feb 13 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on Feb Feb 09 $99 $0 +0%
Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3 Feb 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 29? Feb 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 28 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 19? Jan 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will "11.22.63" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 202 Jan 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 17 $40 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on Ja Jan 15 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 7? Jan 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 7? Jan 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 5? Jan 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on December 31? Jan 04 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 15? Dec 30 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on Dece Dec 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on December 1 Dec 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 15 $42 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or below on Dece Dec 10 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 45°F or higher on Dec Dec 10 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C or higher on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $49 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $35 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $101 21d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $67 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $101 36d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $44 41d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $101 46d
Will the price of Solana be greater than $130 on April 27? BUY No 100¢ $101 57d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 23 BUY No 100¢ $101 60d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 67d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 74d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $101 75d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 83d
Will the highest temperature in London be 5°C on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $100 88d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 91d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 101d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on Mar BUY No 100¢ $100 108d
Will Solana dip to $10 February 23-March 1? BUY No 100¢ $100 114d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY No 100¢ $100 117d
Will "Star Search" be the top global Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $99 127d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 25°F or below on Febr BUY No 100¢ $99 131d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 26°F or higher on Feb BUY No 100¢ $99 133d
Will "M3GAN 2.0" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (February 3 BUY No 100¢ $99 138d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 143d
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $99 150d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 154d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.97 · official $66.97 (match) · 84 history records