Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:29:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba33…e363 crypto 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%57W / 16L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% +$23
other 19% −$3
sports 4% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 89% 0% -9.6%
all 73 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses57 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage192d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $24 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? Mar 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? Mar 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 Feb 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 Feb 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 29? Jan 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Jan 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? Jan 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 22 Jan 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 2 Jan 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? Jan 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 18? Jan 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 14? Jan 16 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,600 on January 11? Jan 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 7? Jan 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 6? Jan 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Lighter FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 31 $219 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $217 +$2 +1%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 31 $217 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 30? Dec 30 $434 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 30 $216 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on December 29? Dec 30 $216 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 29 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $428 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 29? Dec 29 $950 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $219 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 26d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $23 26d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 51d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 51d
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 72d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 72d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 112d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 112d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 BUY No 100¢ $11 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $11 131d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 7 BUY No 100¢ $11 137d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 137d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $7 140d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $15 140d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $80,000 on January 29? BUY No 100¢ $7 145d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $7 148d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 22 to January 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 22 BUY No 100¢ $7 152d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $14 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98,000 and $100,000 on January 2 BUY No 100¢ $21 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 155d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 259 history records