Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba34…32b8 crypto 368 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$141 (+2%) realized +$139 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%211W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$520
7 days+$350
14 days+$340
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$56
crypto 32% +$158
sports 18% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +0.5% -9.1% 52% 51% -3.1%
≤30d 104 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 48% -4.5%
≤90d 367 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 54% -7.9%
all 367 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 54% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 54% -7.9%
10% -22.0% 47% -16.7%
15% -29.5% 42% -24.8%
20% -36.4% 31% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses211 / 156
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)367 / 368
History coverage51d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$106 +188%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $253 +$170 +67%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +59%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$59 +105%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $112 +$132 +118%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -98%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $303 −$300 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $37 +$33 +90%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 +$44 +109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$111 +109%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$168 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Norway to score first vs. Iraq? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +59%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$30 +197%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$16 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$50 +165%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$49 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 +$27 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$17 +86%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$13 +132%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $291 −$290 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $111 +$78 +70%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $183 +$170 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$27 +263%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$23 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $397 +$208 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $56 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $423 4h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $153 5h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $244 5h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $56 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $102 6h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 6h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 6h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 19h
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $61 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $15 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $10 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $31 19h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 57¢ $35 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 22h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $20 24h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 52¢ $16 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.05 · official $102.05 (match) · 829 history records