Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:39:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba34…4282 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$9
world 27% −$4
politics 14% $0
sports 14% $0
weather 5% +$1
tech 4% +$3
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤30d 5 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 5 -13.8% -22.0% 0% 0% -13.9%
all 28 -7.3% -16.1% 29% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 7% -8.0%
10% -24.2% 4% -16.8%
15% -31.5% 4% -24.9%
20% -38.2% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage477d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 73¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $2 $0 -9%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $3 −$2 -54%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 21 $3 −$1 -20%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 24 $24 +$3 +11%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210-219 times April 4 - 11? Apr 09 $24 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be more than $6.00 in March? Apr 09 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 500-749 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $26 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in March? Apr 07 $26 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $25 $0 -1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 -28%
Will 'A Working Man' gross less than 11m on opening weekend? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Mar 29 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $28 +$1 +4%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Montoya stay with his girlfriend? Mar 21 $16 +$12 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $40 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $7 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $32 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $39 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $29 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $10 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 33¢ $28 47h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 35¢ $30 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 26d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL Yes $0 180d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 183d
Will Amazon buy TikTok? SELL No 98¢ $26 360d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 396d
Will Solana reach $190 in April? BUY No 97¢ $1 420d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes $0 435d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes $0 435d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes $0 435d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes $0 435d
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL Yes $0 435d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.50 · official $39.38 (match) · 99 history records