Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:01:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
BA 0xba35…3bdf world 6 markets active 18h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$752 (-15%) realized −$752 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$817per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 100% −$752
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 83% 17% -23.4%
≤30d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 83% 17% -23.4%
≤90d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 83% 17% -23.4%
all 6 -8.5% -17.2% 83% 17% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 17% -23.4%
10% -25.1% 17% -30.7%
15% -32.3% 0% -37.4%
20% -39.0% 0% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$1,000 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$752
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage5d
Avg bet$817
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 21 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $1,000 +$45 +4%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $800 +$13 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 21 $1,000 +$64 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records