Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:11:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba35…8067 crypto 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$106 (+3%) realized +$106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%120W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days−$90
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +31.7% +19.2% 100% 67% +14.0%
≤30d 57 -4.7% -13.7% 72% 42% -15.4%
≤90d 202 -5.0% -14.0% 59% 49% -9.6%
all 202 -5.0% -14.0% 59% 49% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -9.6%
10% -22.2% 41% -18.3%
15% -29.8% 33% -26.2%
20% -36.6% 24% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses120 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)202 / 202
History coverage71d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 202 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $103 +$63 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $103 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 07 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 06 $26 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 05 $104 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 04 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 03 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 01 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $38 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $6 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $27 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $113 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records