Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba36…89a1 crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-2%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate64%324W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day130.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$142
14 days−$170
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$163
sports 1% −$5
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 42% -16.9%
≤30d 510 -1.7% -11.1% 64% 39% -13.4%
≤90d 510 -1.7% -11.1% 64% 39% -13.4%
all 510 -1.7% -11.1% 64% 39% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover130.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 39% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 18% -21.7%
15% -27.4% 9% -29.2%
20% -34.5% 2% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses324 / 186
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)510 / 512
History coverage13d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day130.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 510 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 86¢ 81¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 84¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+68%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand New Zealand 50¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Kimmer Coppejans 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $2 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.04 · official $5.98 (match) · 1978 history records