Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:58:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BA 0xba38…fb57 sports 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18,672 (-4%) realized −$19,075 · open +$403
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate82%42W / 9L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,704per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$2,134est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$18,539now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13,964
7 days+$13,964
14 days+$13,964
30 days−$15,597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$5,131
other 4% −$19,109
crypto 1% −$1,216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.4% +1.7% 100% 71% +1.4%
≤30d 51 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 55% -12.3%
≤90d 51 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 55% -12.3%
all 51 +3.5% -6.4% 82% 55% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.4% 55% -12.3%
10% -15.4% 25% -20.7%
15% ← realistic here -23.5% 14% -28.4%
20% -31.0% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$16,022) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,879 vs −$10,503 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$18,539
Realized−$19,075
Unrealized+$403
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses42 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,134
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage22d
Avg bet$9,704
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 98¢ 100¢ $15,712 $15,960 +$248 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 93¢ 100¢ $2,075 $2,231 +$155 (+7%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 99¢ 99¢ $349 $349 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $23,660 +$3,199 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $22,800 +$926 +4%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $21,038 +$3,460 +16%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $214 +$28 +13%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $16,022 +$2,507 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $17,183 +$1,648 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $14,986 +$2,197 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $254 −$228 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $212 +$38 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $153 +$63 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $77 +$77 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $61 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$12 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19,344 −$19,109 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $16,744 +$2,624 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $16,891 −$16,809 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13,582 +$4,350 +32%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7,979 +$314 +4%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $12,882 +$385 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $11,912 +$969 +8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4,326 +$815 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5,649 +$1,136 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,309 −$6,309 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $14,958 +$1,284 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $22,599 +$3,091 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $18,016 +$4,623 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $13,072 +$4,816 +37%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $6,196 +$421 +7%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $11,121 +$1,655 +15%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $10,004 +$1,092 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19,714 −$19,664 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $16,383 +$3,117 +19%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $15,384 +$1,183 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $2,201 +$186 +8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 1 Winn Jun 09 $5,412 +$188 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 09 $2,894 −$2,894 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 09 $1,222 +$78 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $676 +$1,302 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $1,217 +$347 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $12,856 −$12,730 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $11,484 +$2,613 +23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $37 +$1 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $14,743 +$2,176 +15%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $13,845 +$8,155 +59%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,463 +$61 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $15,101 +$15,887 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $16,740 −$16,740 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $14,306 +$427 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $349 1m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $13,435 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $106 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $1,012 29m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $106 30m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $295 30m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $98 30m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $196 30m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $7 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $15 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $55 31m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $109 32m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 98¢ $278 32m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $26,858 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $11,913 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $24 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $1,926 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $4,395 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $616 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $3,667 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $305 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $55 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $711 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $26 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $4 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $23,726 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,539.27 · official $18,539.27 (match) · 830 history records