Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:07:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba3e…4eae crypto 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$463 (+5%) realized +$463 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate85%262W / 46L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days+$416
14 days+$325
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$175
other 7% +$231
sports 3% −$4
world 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +3.5% -6.4% 88% 52% +0.4%
≤30d 307 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 63% -5.6%
≤90d 308 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 63% -5.6%
all 308 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 63% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 63% -5.6%
10% -18.3% 17% -14.6%
15% -26.2% 1% -22.9%
20% -33.4% 1% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$23 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$463
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses262 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage33d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $151 +$49 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$7 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$46 +35%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$7 -13%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$4 +12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$4 +9%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$5 +12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $44 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $36 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $76 +$16 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$4 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$156 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $38 +$9 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $59 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $151 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $177 15h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 61¢ $44 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 72¢ $131 16h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 69¢ $50 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $37 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $18 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 749 history records