Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba41…095c sports 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 760d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,994 (-12%) realized −$2,991 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%76W / 68L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$2,769
other 9% −$222
politics 2% −$10
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 144 -4.0% -13.1% 53% 40% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 40% -20.7%
10% -21.5% 33% -28.3%
15% -29.0% 27% -35.2%
20% -36.0% 19% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$117 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

760d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized−$2,991
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses76 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage760d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ 48¢ $250 $247 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Reds vs. Mets Jul 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Giants vs. Blue Jays Jul 19 $150 −$49 -33%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Jul 19 $266 −$115 -43%
Twins vs. Rockies Jul 19 $308 −$308 -100%
Padres vs. Nationals Jul 18 $266 +$43 +16%
Dodgers vs. Giants Jul 13 $453 +$100 +22%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jul 13 $648 −$206 -32%
Rays vs. Red Sox Jul 13 $572 +$87 +15%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jul 12 $392 +$180 +46%
Guardians vs. White Sox Jul 12 $361 +$31 +9%
Cubs vs. Yankees Jul 12 $224 +$137 +61%
Guardians vs. White Sox Jul 11 $519 −$43 -8%
Mets vs. Orioles Jul 11 $262 −$262 -100%
Mariners vs. Yankees Jul 11 $267 −$267 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jul 10 $264 −$2 -1%
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Jun 27 $264 −$264 -100%
Red Sox vs. Angels Jun 26 $453 −$453 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Guardians Jun 25 $262 +$191 +73%
Red Sox vs. Angels Jun 24 $148 −$148 -100%
Braves vs. Mets Jun 24 $257 −$109 -42%
White Sox vs. Blue Jays Jun 23 $908 −$908 -100%
Brewers vs. Twins Jun 21 $547 +$361 +66%
Orioles vs. Yankees Jun 21 $355 +$191 +54%
Astros vs. Angels Jun 21 $259 +$96 +37%
Orioles vs. Yankees Jun 21 $578 −$578 -100%
Mets vs. Braves Jun 20 $273 −$273 -100%
Astros vs. Athletics Jun 20 $261 +$317 +121%
Bucks vs. Wizards Jun 19 $113 −$83 -73%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Feb 22 $19 −$1 -5%
Heat vs. Raptors Feb 21 $98 −$3 -3%
Kenny's Young Stars vs. Chuck's Global Stars Feb 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Clippers vs. Jazz Feb 16 $243 −$220 -91%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 14 $285 −$65 -23%
Will Real Sociedead beat FC Midtjylland? Feb 13 $120 +$165 +138%
76ers vs. Nets Feb 13 $141 +$41 +29%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 12 $96 −$17 -18%
Knicks vs. Pacers Feb 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-02-11? Feb 11 $104 +$35 +33%
Raptors vs. 76ers Feb 11 $106 −$1 -1%
Kings vs. Mavericks Feb 11 $96 +$10 +10%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Feb 10 $200 −$200 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Feb 09 $150 +$50 +33%
Rockets vs. Mavericks Feb 09 $96 +$54 +56%
76ers vs. Pistons Feb 08 $209 −$103 -49%
Pacers vs. Clippers Feb 07 $64 +$39 +60%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $143 −$79 -55%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Feb 06 $96 +$47 +49%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Feb 05 $96 −$96 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Feb 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Kings vs. Timberwolves Feb 04 $43 +$15 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $254 1h
Reds vs. Mets BUY Mets 63¢ $101 333d
Giants vs. Blue Jays SELL Giants 36¢ $101 333d
Giants vs. Blue Jays BUY Giants 53¢ $150 333d
Brewers vs. Dodgers SELL Dodgers 40¢ $150 333d
Brewers vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 71¢ $266 333d
Twins vs. Rockies BUY Twins 62¢ $308 333d
Padres vs. Nationals SELL Padres 67¢ $308 333d
Padres vs. Nationals BUY Padres 58¢ $266 334d
Dodgers vs. Giants SELL Dodgers 67¢ $553 338d
Dodgers vs. Giants BUY Dodgers 55¢ $453 339d
Mariners vs. Tigers SELL Mariners 46¢ $442 339d
Mariners vs. Tigers BUY Mariners 67¢ $648 339d
Rays vs. Red Sox SELL Red Sox 77¢ $648 340d
Rays vs. Red Sox BUY Red Sox 67¢ $572 340d
Mariners vs. Tigers SELL Mariners 73¢ $572 340d
Mariners vs. Tigers BUY Mariners 50¢ $392 340d
Guardians vs. White Sox SELL White Sox 60¢ $392 340d
Guardians vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 55¢ $361 340d
Cubs vs. Yankees SELL Yankees 100¢ $361 340d
Cubs vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 62¢ $224 341d
Guardians vs. White Sox SELL White Sox 47¢ $224 341d
Guardians vs. White Sox BUY White Sox 53¢ $252 341d
Guardians vs. White Sox SELL Guardians 51¢ $252 341d
Guardians vs. White Sox BUY Guardians 54¢ $267 341d
Mariners vs. Yankees BUY Mariners 53¢ $267 341d
Mets vs. Orioles BUY Mets 54¢ $262 342d
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves SELL Timberwolves 68¢ $262 342d
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 69¢ $264 342d
Blue Jays vs. Guardians BUY Guardians 57¢ $264 356d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.40 · official $247.40 (match) · 348 history records