Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xba42…2657 other 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$79
world 16% −$41
crypto 7% −$7
sports 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +7.2% -3.0% 76% 59% +1.6%
≤30d 37 +7.2% -3.0% 76% 59% +1.6%
≤90d 43 +4.1% -5.8% 72% 58% -4.2%
all 61 -9.0% -17.7% 62% 51% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 51% -6.2%
10% -25.5% 33% -15.2%
15% -32.7% 28% -23.4%
20% -39.3% 18% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage119d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $100 +$3 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 +$2 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $110 +$2 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 $0 +3%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 $0 +7%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 +$2 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 +$15 +132%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +128%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear Apr 05 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 03 $1 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 4? Apr 03 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 03 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $103 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $100 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 53¢ $11 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $19 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 34h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 34h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.32 · official $59.32 (match) · 162 history records