trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +17.1% | +5.9% | 100% | 100% | +5.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 50% | 25% | -4.6% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +2.3% | -7.5% | 27% | 18% | -7.1% |
| all | 20 | +1.2% | -8.5% | 40% | 10% | -7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.5% | 10% | -7.4% |
| 10% | -17.2% | 0% | -16.3% |
| 15% | -25.2% | 0% | -24.4% |
| 20% | -32.6% | 0% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | No | 80¢ | 82¢ | $45 | $46 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $32 | +$5 | +17% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 27 | $53 | +$3 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 26 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 23 | $32 | +$4 | +11% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 21 | $3 | $0 | -3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 21 | $35 | −$3 | -7% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 20 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 19 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $2 | $0 | -4% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 27 | $12 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 30 | $9 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? | Mar 25 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 53°F or below on March 23? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 'Snow White' gross between 34-39m on opening weekend? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +4% |