Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba42…ef63 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-6%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$10
other 26% −$2
sports 13% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 45% 36% -56.8%
≤30d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 45% 36% -56.8%
≤90d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 45% 36% -56.8%
all 11 -31.9% -38.4% 45% 36% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.4% 36% -56.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.3% 27% -61.0%
15% -49.7% 27% -64.7%
20% -54.6% 9% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 61¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 4m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $2 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 8¢ $2 19h
Will Cape Verde concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $1 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 19h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 19h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $1 19h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.52 · official $5.52 (match) · 31 history records