Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba48…907c sports 1051 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$43 · open −$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%706W / 342L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$317est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$472
14 days−$1,096
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$493
other 5% +$167
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -15.4% -23.5% 45% 41% -33.3%
≤30d 227 -1.7% -11.0% 63% 55% -12.6%
≤90d 610 -2.9% -12.1% 63% 56% -15.1%
all 1048 +2.1% -7.6% 67% 61% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 61% -10.0%
10% -16.5% 53% -18.6%
15% -24.5% 39% -26.4%
20% -31.9% 24% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$47 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized−$43
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses706 / 342
Est. fees paid−$317
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1048 / 1051
History coverage242d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1048 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $228 $216 −$12 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? No 71¢ 74¢ $119 $125 +$6 (+5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $105 $78 −$28 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $161 −$161 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $48 −$48 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $44 +$26 +59%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026- Jun 20 $11 +$17 +158%
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026 Jun 20 $69 +$111 +162%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $99 −$99 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $43 +$37 +85%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $69 +$46 +67%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $82 +$68 +84%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $89 +$51 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $84 −$83 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $35 +$1 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $21 +$16 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $37 +$43 +119%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$30 +75%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $45 +$15 +33%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 +$34 +72%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $200 $0 -0%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $62 +$48 +77%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $65 −$65 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$30 +46%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $85 +$85 +100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$7 +62%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$11 +60%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $38 +$42 +108%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $50 +$1 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $84 +$96 +114%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $38 +$40 +104%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$10 +27%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $56 +$14 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 71¢ $120 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $16 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $12 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $6 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $7 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 55¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $161 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $10 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 39¢ $10 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $3 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $20 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 40¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $31 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $41 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 41¢ $12 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $42 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $16 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $3 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $12 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 58¢ $3 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $2 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $42 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.44 · official $418.44 (match) · 2637 history records