Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba4a…cf36 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$313 (-44%) realized −$312 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 25% -55.9%
≤30d 4 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 25% -55.9%
≤90d 4 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 25% -55.9%
all 4 -30.2% -36.9% 50% 25% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 25% -55.9%
10% -42.9% 25% -60.1%
15% -48.4% 25% -64.0%
20% -53.5% 25% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$175 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$312
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) New Zealand 65¢ 64¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $188 +$11 +6%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $87 −$86 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $267 −$265 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $111 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $111 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 87¢ $97 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 54¢ $89 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 54¢ $91 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $87 35h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $88 35h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 78¢ $218 35h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $27 36h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 57¢ $51 36h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 50¢ $22 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.08 · official $109.08 (match) · 11 history records