Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:47:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba4a…1a59 crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-4%) realized −$8 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%48W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$15
crypto 33% −$26
other 31% −$10
world 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 37% -4.1%
≤30d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 37% -4.1%
≤90d 19 -6.1% -15.0% 42% 37% -4.1%
all 69 +2.2% -7.5% 70% 51% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 51% -9.9%
10% -16.4% 36% -18.5%
15% -24.4% 22% -26.4%
20% -31.8% 13% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses48 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage100d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$10 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +249%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$11 -44%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Mar 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +9%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs Alter Ego (BO3) - Asia Championships Cl Mar 12 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 12 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 12 $42 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 12 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 12 $1 $0 +24%
Counter-Strike: Alter Ego vs FlyQuest (BO3) - Asia Championships Close Mar 12 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Mar 10 $2 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: Rune Eaters vs Hashiras (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Mar 10 $1 $0 -43%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 10 $45 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Gr Mar 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 10 $1 $0 +50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $5 +$3 +51%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs FOKUS (BO3) - Parken Challenger Champio Mar 09 $28 −$4 -15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $19 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 11h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 17h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 25h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $1 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 40h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 41h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 41h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 43h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 44h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 44h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 45h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 46h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 58¢ $14 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 149 history records