Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba4c…41a3 politics 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$839per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$90
economics 7% −$1
other 7% −$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$901) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$839
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $810 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,628 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $814 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,702 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $823 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $823 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,728 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $331 −$59 -18%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $886 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $887 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $892 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $781 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $901 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $901 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $902 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $904 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $904 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $905 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 47h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $808 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $810 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $809 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $811 12d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $810 14d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $811 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $812 16d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $814 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $811 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $812 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $813 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $819 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $820 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $819 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $820 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $816 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $817 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $822 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $823 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $822 34d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $823 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $823 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $824 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.80 · official $34.80 (match) · 111 history records