Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:19:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba4c…d626 world 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 289d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 23% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 6% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.2% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.4% 27% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -2.6% -11.9% 29% 0% -9.2%
all 38 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

289d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage289d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $60 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $44 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $44 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $40 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $3 $0 -10%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $1 $0 -24%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Sep 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet between 400 and 419 times September 5–12? Sep 08 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $19 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $45 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $25 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $15 11h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 20h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $21 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 94¢ $21 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $20 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $44 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $37 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $37 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $44 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $44 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $13 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $13 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.64 · official $31.45 (match) · 105 history records