Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba4f…75a4 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$71 (-4%) realized −$101 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$74
14 days+$83
30 days−$146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$35
crypto 33% −$203
politics 12% +$19
other 3% +$25
world 3% +$8
finance 3% −$8
economics 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +17.5% +6.3% 83% 83% +6.4%
≤30d 85 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 52% -18.8%
≤90d 85 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 52% -18.8%
all 85 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 52% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 52% -18.8%
10% -22.9% 46% -26.6%
15% -30.3% 32% -33.7%
20% -37.1% 16% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 36
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)85 / 92
History coverage19d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 74¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Logan Cunningham be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 22¢ $1 $34 +$33 (+3276%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 64¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 77¢ 88¢ $27 $31 +$4 (+15%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 62¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Yes 95¢ 84¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Sam McCown be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $22 +$4 +21%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $20 +$7 +35%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$9 +35%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $58 +$19 +32%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $18 +$8 +41%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $44 +$14 +32%
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +43%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $14 +$4 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $32 +$12 +37%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 15 $4 +$4 +96%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$2 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$5 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$2 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $11 +$5 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 18 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +8%
Will PPI YoY be between 5.0% and 5.9% in May? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in May? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +168%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be less than or equal t Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Pamela Evette win the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Gove Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $10 +$6 +63%
Will Dave & Buster's (PLAY) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $16 +$6 +38%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Michele Sodano win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 08 $9 +$5 +53%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 08 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Giuseppe Tortora win the 2026 Pompei mayoral election? Jun 08 $31 +$13 +42%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 04 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 04 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 04 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 04 $48 −$22 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $24 −$23 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $77 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $35 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $26 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $27 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $11 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $26 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $58 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $20 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $22 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $44 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $18 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $15 5d
France vs. Senegal: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $14 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $32 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $21 6d
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima SELL Yes 51¢ $9 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $5 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 8d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $9 9d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 9d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 69¢ $5 9d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 9d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $10 9d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 73¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.87 · official $215.87 (match) · 188 history records