Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba50…59e3 crypto 98 markets active 6d ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-8%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate86%74W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$175
other 25% −$1
crypto 11% +$2
economics 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 86 +6.1% -4.0% 86% 16% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 16% -17.0%
10% -13.2% 12% -24.9%
15% -21.6% 9% -32.2%
20% -29.3% 8% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses74 / 12
Open positions12
Markets (closed)86 / 98
History coverage536d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in February? Mar 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $150 in February? Mar 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $140 in February? Mar 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in January? Feb 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in January? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $500 before 2026? Jan 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,400 in November? Nov 15 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,200 in November? Nov 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 15 $1 $0 +4%
Flyers vs. Blues Nov 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bucks vs. Raptors Nov 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $17 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $19 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 23 $10 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 25 $3 $0 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $2 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 30 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 5d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 51d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 51d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 51d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 51d
Will Solana reach $150 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 85d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 85d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? BUY No 100¢ $2 85d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 85d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 85d
Will Solana reach $140 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Solana reach $130 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 111d
Will Solana reach $140 in February? BUY No 100¢ $2 111d
Will Solana reach $150 in February? BUY No 100¢ $3 111d
Will Solana reach $140 in February? BUY No 100¢ $1 111d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $1 139d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? BUY No 100¢ $3 139d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 99¢ $1 139d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.44 · official $33.44 (match) · 441 history records