Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba55…41f1 sports 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,815 (+15%) realized +$12,815 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$1,203per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,014est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8,014
7 days+$4,458
14 days+$832
30 days+$12,181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$954
other 14% +$13,137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +41.0% +27.6% 56% 38% +1.9%
≤30d 69 +8.9% -1.5% 48% 43% +3.6%
≤90d 70 +9.1% -1.3% 49% 44% +3.6%
all 70 +9.1% -1.3% 49% 44% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 44% +3.6%
10% -10.7% 41% -6.3%
15% -19.4% 36% -15.4%
20% -27.3% 30% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$2,009) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,166 vs −$763 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,815
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,014
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage31d
Avg bet$1,203
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $2,737 +$263 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $2,009 −$2,009 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,983 −$1,283 -32%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $3,346 +$454 +14%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $1,330 +$70 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $832 −$832 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $3,627 +$216 +6%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $3,819 −$3,819 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $2,793 −$2,793 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $316 −$316 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,564 +$2,036 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $715 +$1,837 +257%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $690 −$690 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,416 +$380 +11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,158 +$4,189 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $949 +$6,756 +712%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 10 $2,667 −$2,667 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $138 −$138 -100%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $956 −$956 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $278 +$856 +307%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $3,133 +$1,068 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 08 $2,287 −$2,287 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $503 −$503 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $2,298 +$1,002 +44%
Tyler: Henry Searle vs Karl Poling Jun 06 $1,802 +$2,913 +162%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $890 −$299 -34%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,729 +$1,266 +73%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2,298 +$2,322 +101%
Heilbronn: Jan Choinski vs Luka Mikrut Jun 04 $975 −$975 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 04 $574 −$574 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Tricksters - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thomas Faurel vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Taylor Townsend Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Little Rock: Blake Ellis vs Tyler Zink Jun 04 $854 −$854 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang Jun 04 $1,921 −$1,921 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 04 $624 −$624 -100%
Birmingham: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 04 $326 −$326 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Cha Jun 03 $224 −$224 -100%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Ser Jun 03 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Jun 03 $281 −$281 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Cristian Garin vs Learner Tien Jun 03 $17 −$17 -100%
Valorant: REBORN vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs Jun 03 $769 −$769 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Sebastian Ofner vs Luciano Darderi Jun 03 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen Jun 03 $507 −$507 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $155 −$155 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $877 −$877 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $3,351 +$2,259 +67%
Centurion 2: Harold Mayot vs Semen Pankin Jun 03 $14 +$10 +73%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Jun 01 $1,179 +$1,460 +124%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4,808 +$1,432 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 91¢ $2,737 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $1,296 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $377 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $375 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $36 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 43¢ $482 17h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $972 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $4 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $4 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $11 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $10 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $1,760 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Emiliana Arango 88¢ $584 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $1,406 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 35¢ $881 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $1,127 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 95¢ $1,118 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 95¢ $212 19h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $1,236 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $2 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $1 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $3 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $48 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $8 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $2 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $2 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $72 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $144 21h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 48¢ $311 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 281 history records