Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba57…a15f sports 43 markets active 7d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-11%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$9
sports 47% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -50.7% -55.4% 33% 33% -45.0%
≤30d 40 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 45% -22.1%
≤90d 40 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 45% -22.1%
all 40 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 45% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 45% -22.1%
10% -20.7% 45% -29.6%
15% -28.4% 42% -36.4%
20% -35.4% 30% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 +$18 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $11 +$5 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $15 −$3 -23%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $30 −$3 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $76 −$50 -66%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $24 +$10 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $21 +$30 +140%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $46 −$9 -20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$30 +146%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $15 +$12 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $50 −$40 -80%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$36 -71%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 −$17 -55%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 +$31 +123%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$45 +89%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $11 +$17 +154%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $29 −$29 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$30 -60%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $38 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $16 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $11 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 29¢ $13 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 46¢ $12 8d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $15 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $16 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 62¢ $10 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $11 8d
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 70¢ $20 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 8d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $18 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 9d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 10d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $23 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 10d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists AND Cristiano BUY 42¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records