Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba58…6af8 world 53 markets active 0h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate37%19W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$10
sports 34% −$7
other 20% +$2
finance 4% −$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.7% -8.0% 33% 11% -9.1%
≤30d 32 +1.4% -8.2% 31% 9% -9.1%
≤90d 45 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 7% -9.2%
all 52 +0.4% -9.2% 37% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 8% -9.4%
10% -17.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.1% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses19 / 33
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage535d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $55 +$1 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $47 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $48 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $139 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $24 +$4 +18%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $31 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $75 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $136 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $76 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $38 +$3 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $32 −$1 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $186 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $299 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $272 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $272 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $273 −$2 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 13 $6 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $27 22m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $21 22m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $48 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $8 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $40 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $48 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $48 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $12 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $28 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $40 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $21 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $40 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $42 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $47 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.65 (match) · 228 history records