Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
BA 0xba58…28c2 sports 1195 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,755 (-6%) realized −$9,755 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate60%719W / 476L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$1,308est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,445
7 days−$17,435
14 days−$15,697
30 days−$10,930
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$9,830
other 8% −$1,243
politics 0% −$257
world 0% −$177
economics 0% +$706
crypto 0% −$304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 223 -59.8% -63.6% 25% 16% -60.0%
≤30d 373 -21.0% -28.5% 51% 39% -29.0%
≤90d 971 -18.9% -26.6% 52% 38% -24.8%
all 1195 -6.9% -15.8% 60% 45% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 45% -15.6%
10% -23.8% 34% -23.6%
15% -31.2% 25% -31.0%
20% -38.0% 18% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$109 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,755
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses719 / 476
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$1,308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1195 / 1195
History coverage145d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1195 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $168 +$13 +8%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 Jun 16 $93 +$8 +9%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 Jun 16 $102 −$36 -36%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka, Women: Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Hong Kong, China Jun 16 $141 −$19 -14%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Jiujiang: Yunchaokete Bu vs Coleman Wong Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Tomas Etcheverry vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Arthur Fils Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Max Schoenhaus Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $347 −$55 -16%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexei Popyrin vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca Jun 16 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Jesper de Jong Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hubert Hurkacz vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 16 $145 +$5 +4%
Perricard vs. Djokovic: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alex de Minaur vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Struff vs. Bublik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $91 −$91 -100%
Cilic vs. Shapovalov: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5) Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Rybakina vs. Maria: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Altmaier vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $98 −$98 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Andreeva vs Ribera Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Navarro vs. McNally: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $96 −$96 -100%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Malaysia vs Kuwait Jun 16 $99 −$99 -100%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $181 13m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $168 48m
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 49m
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 54m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 SELL Under 35¢ $46 1h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 169.5 BUY Over 93¢ $19 2h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 SELL Under 30¢ $19 2h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 168.5 BUY Over 92¢ $93 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $93 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $98 7h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 7h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 177.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 7h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $96 7h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 7h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 86¢ $93 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $193 9h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 96¢ $185 9h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $185 9h
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $177 10h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 83¢ $64 19h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 95¢ $100 30h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 96¢ $153 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan SELL India 100¢ $154 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY India 91¢ $140 36h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron SELL Marcos Giron 43¢ $146 36h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 72¢ $152 37h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 99¢ $242 37h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 48¢ $97 37h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 29¢ $102 37h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 47¢ $102 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3234 history records