Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba5a…8462 crypto 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$94 (+2%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate70%132W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.3% -2.0% 80% 80% -20.1%
≤30d 57 -0.6% -10.0% 68% 60% -12.1%
≤90d 188 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 53% -10.7%
all 188 -1.7% -11.1% 70% 53% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 53% -10.7%
10% -19.6% 30% -19.2%
15% -27.4% 13% -27.1%
20% -34.5% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses132 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage38d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $165 −$71 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$15 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $45 +$15 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $75 −$27 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $63 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $46 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $36 +$13 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $24 +$12 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $132 −$100 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $14 +$7 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 22 $31 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 20 $20 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 20 $21 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 20 $56 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 20 $82 −$16 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 20 $49 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 20 $36 +$18 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $90 −$53 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 20 $82 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 20 $31 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $41 −$8 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 20 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $36 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 20 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $40 +$8 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $31 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 20 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $92 −$62 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 19 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 19 $71 +$23 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 19 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 19 $36 +$8 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $90 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $90 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $76 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $37 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $21 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 514 history records