Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba5b…9962 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$35
politics 12% +$17
sports 10% +$11
other 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -15.5% -23.6% 47% 37% -14.3%
≤30d 38 -15.5% -23.6% 47% 37% -14.3%
≤90d 38 -15.5% -23.6% 47% 37% -14.3%
all 38 -15.5% -23.6% 47% 37% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 37% -14.3%
10% -30.9% 24% -22.5%
15% -37.6% 13% -30.0%
20% -43.7% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$1 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -51%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $41 +$17 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 46m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $2 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 49m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 56m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records