Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba5c…0811 politics 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 390d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$2
other 22% $0
world 17% +$1
sports 10% +$1
finance 7% $0
crypto 4% +$1
tech 3% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -8.0%
≤90d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 0% -9.0%
all 52 -2.9% -12.1% 42% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

390d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage390d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $12 −$1 -6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $2 $0 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $79 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 -9%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 18 $142 $0 +0%
Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 17 $7 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $10 $0 +2%
Spread: Grizzlies (-2.5) Mar 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 82°F or below on August 12? Aug 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $37 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6? Aug 10 $23 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $4 $0 +8%
Will Adrienne Adams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Saravia win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jun 04 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $109K and $111K on June 3? Jun 02 $2 $0 -18%
Will another person win the South Korean election? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Williams Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 01 $2 $0 +8%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 01 $2 $0 -19%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on May 30? Jun 01 $23 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $44 1h
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes $0 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $6 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $35 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $25 27d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $16 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $7 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 30¢ $4 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $12 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $29 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $29 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 32¢ $28 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $12 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 29¢ $13 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $2 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 31d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $3 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 32d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $2 32d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 33d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $1 33d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 34d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 34d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 34d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.05 · official $44.05 (match) · 168 history records