Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:29:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba5e…f9c4 sports 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,419 (+26%) realized +$12,108 · open +$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%31W / 30L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$742est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,941now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,587
7 days+$842
14 days+$13,415
30 days+$13,415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$13,726
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 38% +0.1%
≤30d 61 +3.2% -6.6% 51% 49% +17.1%
≤90d 61 +3.2% -6.6% 51% 49% +17.1%
all 61 +3.2% -6.6% 51% 49% +17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 49% +17.1%
10% -15.5% 49% +5.9%
15% -23.7% 48% -4.3%
20% -31.2% 44% -13.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,450) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$903 vs −$486 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$1,941
Realized+$12,108
Unrealized+$311
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses31 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$742
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage12d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Spirit 57¢ 68¢ $1,630 $1,941 +$311 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $134 +$425 +318%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,014 +$871 +86%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,147 +$82 +7%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $408 −$400 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,007 +$548 +54%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $182 +$414 +227%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $304 +$291 +96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $561 −$281 -50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $385 +$200 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $145 +$240 +165%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $145 −$143 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $281 −$278 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $198 −$194 -98%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $147 −$145 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $57 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $79 −$77 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$143 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $342 −$337 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $210 +$132 +63%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $110 +$100 +91%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $513 −$505 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $261 +$253 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $820 −$804 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $502 +$320 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $365 −$360 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $818 −$800 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $1,135 +$2,045 +180%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,525 +$1,880 +123%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $1,520 +$1,133 +75%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $512 −$500 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $1,473 +$1,609 +109%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,472 +$1,439 +98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,474 −$1,450 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $1,322 +$1,749 +132%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1,473 −$1,450 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,473 +$1,612 +109%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $1,425 +$2,075 +146%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,515 +$757 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $659 −$645 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $1,462 +$528 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $205 −$200 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,471 +$1,315 +89%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $615 −$600 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $1,014 21m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $636 24m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $558 25m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 7¢ $134 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $1,885 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $1,014 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 75¢ $1,229 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 69¢ $1,147 4h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner BUY Carstensz 31¢ $408 5h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Execration 100¢ $1,555 5h
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Execration 64¢ $1,007 6h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter SELL InterActive Philippines 100¢ $596 7h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 32¢ $106 7h
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY InterActive Philippines 27¢ $76 7h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A SELL Amaru Gaming 100¢ $595 8h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 50¢ $304 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 17¢ $281 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $561 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $584 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $385 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $385 21h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $145 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $145 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $281 25h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 33¢ $198 31h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $147 32h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $43 47h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $57 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $28 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 30¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,940.51 · official $2,097.47 · 98 history records