Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:59:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BA
0xba62…58e9
world · 74 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$30,320 -87%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$32,207 · open +$1,887
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$56,749
Realized−$32,207
Unrealized+$1,887
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses8 / 37
Open positions103
Markets (closed)45 / 74
History coverage10d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day349.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 103 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30,510
7 days−$31,556
14 days−$32,207
30 days−$32,207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $5,000 $5,290 +$290 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $3,218 $3,290 +$72 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 61¢ 60¢ $3,014 $2,952 −$62 (-2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $2,144 $2,276 +$132 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 95¢ 99¢ $2,042 $2,112 +$70 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 77¢ 80¢ $1,843 $1,902 +$60 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 92¢ 98¢ $1,668 $1,790 +$122 (+7%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $1,694 $1,656 −$38 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 67¢ 82¢ $1,302 $1,609 +$307 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 78¢ 91¢ $1,343 $1,570 +$227 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,389 $1,408 +$19 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 85¢ 88¢ $1,345 $1,382 +$38 (+3%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,288 $1,297 +$9 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $1,268 $1,278 +$10 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,156 $1,166 +$10 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $1,078 $1,152 +$74 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,091 $1,094 +$3 (+0%)
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote? No 72¢ 78¢ $988 $1,071 +$82 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 42¢ 58¢ $765 $1,055 +$290 (+38%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 95¢ 98¢ $985 $1,016 +$30 (+3%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $980 $988 +$8 (+1%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $974 $983 +$9 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 69¢ 64¢ $971 $908 −$63 (-7%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $833 $902 +$69 (+8%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $891 $885 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentar Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 12 $77 −$77 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $28,818 −$28,785 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o Jun 12 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 12 $379 −$379 -100%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Jun 12 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $245 −$245 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $274 −$274 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 12 $430 −$430 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $705 +$206 +29%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $394 +$354 +90%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $50 +$1,315 +2616%
Will Eric Swalwell advance from the 2026 California Governor primary e Jun 10 $10 +$20 +207%
Will David Flippo be the Republican nominee for NV-02? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +45%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $52 −$1,046 -1996%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $432 −$526 -122%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $105 +$43 +41%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $278 +$222 +80%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $20 $0 +1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $328 −$391 -119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$273
other 28% +$108
finance 23% +$1,074
politics 5% +$414
economics 3% −$3
crypto 1% +$222
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 0m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 47¢ $9 6m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 20m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $19 21m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 23m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 24m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 53¢ $11 26m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 59¢ $12 28m
Will Waymo launch in New York City by June 30 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 34m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $6 40m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 52¢ $2 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 42m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 51¢ $3 43m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 55m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 55m
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 56m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 62¢ $12 59m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $18 1h
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 60¢ $12 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $9 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 56¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -28.2% -35.1% 12% 12% -92.7%
≤30d 45 -26.8% -33.8% 18% 16% -91.3%
≤90d 45 -26.8% -33.8% 18% 16% -91.3%
all 45 -26.8% -33.8% 18% 16% -91.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover349.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -33.8% 16% -91.3%
10% -40.1% 16% -92.2%
15% ← realistic here -45.9% 13% -92.9%
20% -51.2% 9% -93.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,748.86 · official $56,748.99 (match) · 3500 history records