Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba63…972d other 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$19 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate82%46W / 10L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$10
world 26% +$5
finance 9% +$3
crypto 6% +$1
economics 4% $0
politics 2% +$1
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.8% -21.1% 75% 38% -7.9%
≤30d 13 -5.7% -14.7% 85% 31% -7.5%
≤90d 38 +0.7% -8.9% 87% 21% -6.5%
all 56 -0.8% -10.2% 82% 21% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 21% -7.0%
10% -18.8% 9% -15.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -24.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses46 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions16
Markets (closed)56 / 74
History coverage110d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $49 $52 +$3 (+5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will US annex any territory in 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 84¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? No 89¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Nothing 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$5 +12%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $6 $0 +3%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$3 -59%
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +4%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? May 24 $3 $0 +15%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 06 $5 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 06 $10 −$1 -10%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 06 $5 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 30 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $5 $0 +1%
Major solar storm by April 30? Apr 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 27 $32 +$2 +8%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Apr 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Apr 13 $5 +$1 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $32 $0 +1%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +25%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +3%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +4%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +4%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $1 $0 +8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $21 $0 +2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $2 $0 +6%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 28 $1 $0 +27%
Will Starmer say "Mr Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Minister Mar 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31? Mar 23 $2 $0 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 23 $2 $0 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 23 $25 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 23 $6 $0 +5%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 23 $1 $0 +25%
Major Space Weather event this week? (March 22-28) Mar 22 $2 −$1 -44%
Pakistan military action against Kabul by March 31? Mar 22 $1 $0 -15%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 18 $2 $0 +15%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $1 $0 +28%
Will France win the 2026 Six Nations championship? Mar 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will Gerry Hutch win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? Mar 13 $1 $0 -12%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Mar 13 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $14 14h
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $8 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $2 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 39¢ $5 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $30 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 27h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes $2 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 3d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? SELL Yes $11 5d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $18 10d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $5 11d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $5 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $4 18d
Iran nuclear test before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $4 27d
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $3 28d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $9 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.42 · official $225.43 (match) · 271 history records