Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:06:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
BA 0xba63…6a87 economics 10 markets active 3d ago coverage 88d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-24%) realized −$30 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$7
other 31% −$50
economics 11% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 5 +1.4% -8.3% 80% 40% -42.6%
all 5 +1.4% -8.3% 80% 40% -42.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 40% -42.6%
10% -17.1% 20% -48.1%
15% -25.1% 20% -53.1%
20% -32.4% 20% -57.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$50 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 10
History coverage88d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 38¢ $85 $73 −$12 (-14%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 76¢ 77¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Yes 27¢ 21¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-23%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 3.0% and 4.0%? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-22%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Apr 24 $23 +$19 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 23 $2 $0 +14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Apr 23 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.94 · official $89.94 (match) · 14 history records