Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BA 0xba63…6271 other 481 markets active 5h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,292 (+14%) realized +$2,300 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate47%213W / 244L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$112
14 days+$91
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$581
world 28% +$567
politics 26% +$622
finance 3% +$427
crypto 1% +$6
sports 1% +$35
weather 1% −$48
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +18.0% +6.8% 56% 44% +16.9%
≤30d 70 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 33% -4.4%
≤90d 396 +15.3% +4.3% 44% 32% +1.4%
all 457 +15.9% +4.8% 47% 34% +3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.8% 34% +3.6%
10% -5.2% 27% -6.3%
15% -14.4% 21% -15.4%
20% -22.8% 18% -23.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$10 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$2,300
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses213 / 244
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)457 / 481
History coverage340d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+8%)
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brennan O'Neill win the 2026 PLL MVP award? Yes 98¢ 48¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-51%)
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Gavin Adler win the 2026 PLL Defensive Player of the Year? Yes 13¢ 49¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+277%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E5 S9? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+117%)
Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $30 +$9 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -4%
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 16 $18 +$8 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $47 −$3 -7%
Will Panama concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $25 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $35 +$2 +5%
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 14 $43 +$73 +169%
Will Haiti concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 14 $9 −$4 -44%
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $13 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $7 +$4 +59%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +83%
Will Rayan Cherki be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $13 +$9 +64%
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 10 $56 −$2 -3%
Will MrBeast say "Hottest" during his next YouTube video? Jun 09 $15 −$14 -97%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 08 $33 +$8 +23%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 07 $13 +$1 +8%
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $7 +$10 +144%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tourna Jun 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wo Jun 06 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented Jun 06 $2 −$2 -77%
Will "Swapped" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Crash" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Ryan Gerard win the 2026 the Memorial Tournament presented by Wor Jun 05 $5 −$1 -17%
Will "Ladies First" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 05 $7 −$7 -98%
Will "Ladies First" be the top global Netflix movie this week? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Peter Obi win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3 +$13 +476%
Will Zamalek win Egypt Premier League? Jun 03 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 +24%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 2? Jun 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $20 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 5h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo SELL Messi 83¢ $21 11h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 83¢ $21 11h
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 12h
Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? SELL No 79¢ $40 13h
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 17h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 20h
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21h
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 22h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 22h
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 22h
Will Bryson DeChambeau finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 22h
Will Cameron Young finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 22h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 22h
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 22h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 23h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 24h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 79¢ $21 26h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 86¢ $22 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.89 · official $83.91 (match) · 2875 history records