Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BA 0xba63…36dc weather 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (319 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,878 (-44%) realized −$6,855 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -77% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%48W / 323L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day318.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,004now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$1,044
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (319 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-79.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 339 -83.3% -84.9% 12% 3% -64.1%
≤30d 371 -76.8% -79.0% 13% 4% -64.3%
≤90d 371 -76.8% -79.0% 13% 4% -64.3%
all 371 -76.8% -79.0% 13% 4% -64.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover318.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -79.0% 4% -64.3%
10% ← realistic here -81.1% 4% -67.7%
15% -82.9% 4% -70.8%
20% -84.6% 4% -73.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -77% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -54% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
34.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$69 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$2,004
Realized−$6,855
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses48 / 323
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)371 / 96
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$165
Trades / day318.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $278 $276 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $199 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $197 $197 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 25? No 99¢ 98¢ $198 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? No 98¢ 98¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 25? No 99¢ 97¢ $198 $195 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 25? No 98¢ 97¢ $197 $195 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 25? No 98¢ 97¢ $197 $194 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? No 98¢ 99¢ $45 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? No 98¢ 55¢ $28 $16 −$12 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 323 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 29? Jun 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 23? Jun 25 $37 −$38 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 28? Jun 25 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on May 31? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 25 $155 −$155 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -105%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 7? Jun 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 2? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on May 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on May 31? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 8? Jun 25 $278 −$279 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 29? Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 1? Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? Jun 25 $65 −$65 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 31? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on May 23? Jun 25 $35 −$37 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 2? Jun 25 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 27? Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 26? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? Jun 25 $27 −$27 -102%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 29? Jun 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? Jun 25 $689 −$689 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 26? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on May 31? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 1? Jun 25 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 30? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 25 $45 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27? Jun 25 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 25 $244 −$244 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 2? Jun 25 $54 −$55 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on May 26? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 23? Jun 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 25 $246 −$246 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 1? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 25 $215 −$216 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 29? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -101%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1? Jun 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 30? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $80 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $99 1m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $19 13m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $200 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $117 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $197 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $198 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 100¢ $306 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 98¢ $28 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $200 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,004.15 · official $2,000.45 (match) · 3500 history records