Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BA 0xba65…be3d crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-8%) realized −$21 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2
finance 6% −$21
tech 4% −$20
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 37% -13.7%
≤30d 19 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 37% -13.7%
≤90d 19 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 37% -13.7%
all 19 -22.9% -30.3% 42% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.3% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -36.9% 21% -22.0%
15% -43.0% 16% -29.5%
20% -48.6% 16% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 24¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-68%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-72%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 15¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$19 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$5 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $113 +$21 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $66 −$48 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $136 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $45 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.48 · official $28.48 (match) · 76 history records