Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

BA 0xba71…64cc crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized −$24 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$18per market

Trades / day36.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-14.8%	-22.9%	48%	38%	-4.3%
≤30d	21	-14.8%	-22.9%	48%	38%	-4.3%
≤90d	21	-14.8%	-22.9%	48%	38%	-4.3%
all	21	-14.8%	-22.9%	48%	38%	-4.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover36.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.9%	38%	-4.3%
10% ← realistic here	-30.3%	33%	-13.4%
15%	-37.0%	29%	-21.8%
20%	-43.2%	29%	-29.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -7% → late -22% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$24

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$18

Trades / day36.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$67	+$50	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 15	$10	+$9	+86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 14	$6	+$8	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$5	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Jun 14	$10	−$4	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$4	+79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$1	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Jun 14	$5	+$5	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Jun 14	$10	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 14	$71	+$10	+15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$30	−$26	-86%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$10	−$2	-19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$96	+$6	+6%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$118	14m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	92¢	$15	1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$53	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$6	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$4	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Up	71¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	SELL Down	58¢	$6	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$75	5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$5	6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	80¢	$60	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	11¢	$4	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	76¢	$10	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$20	6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	18¢	$6	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records